At least five candidates say they have a strong chance of winning the Yarraman Ward by-election as they approach the final days of voting.
In a wide open field of 13 candidates, the Greater Dandenong Council vacancy is expected to be decided by preferences.
Labor candidates have a decided advantage, which tends to monopolise the vote among its five members.
Under party rules, the five Labor candidates Phillip Danh, Thay-Horn Yim, Zahra Haydar Big, Sam Afra and Alexandra Bryant must preference one another before the other eight candidates.
The first three of them seem the most confident heading into the last week.
Of them, Afra and Yim have preferenced each other while Danh has lowly preferences from most other party colleagues except Bryant.
On the other hand, Haydar Big has won big on preferences from ALP member candidates and the Greens’ Robert Lim.
Independents Rahima Rizai and Peter Brown are also making strong claims.
They argue voters won’t necessarily follow how-to-vote cards – which aren’t even included in the postal ballot packs.
A “confident” Rizai – who has drawn the coveted top position of the ballot – said voters were doing “their own research” rather than relying on how-to-vote cards.
She didn’t produce a how-to-vote card because she doesn’t believe in such “political games”.
“People are going to choose the person who they believe is most beneficial for the community.”
Despite being frozen out of ALP preferences, the former Labor member Brown said he could still see a pathway to victory.
He’s a chance if he outpolls the Greens candidate, he says. He also expects Rizai to out poll Haydar Big and to harvest much of her preferences.
“It’s more difficult to tell with postal voting. I don’t believe (how-to-vote) cards have as much impact.”
Brown says it’s hard to gauge the chances of Danh who has a “massive amount of organizational support behind him”.
“I just can’t tell really. You do your best but ultimately I really don’t know.”
Danh, regarded as the ALP favourite, has been lowly preferenced by other party member candidates.
“Candidates are entitled to release their own preferences and I am not concerned about what others have published.
“As I have done throughout this summer, I am focused on actually talking to as many people on the ground as possible rather than jostling for preference deals.”
ALP rivals Yim and Haydar Big also feel they are strong chances.
“Zahra (Haydar Big) has got good preferences. By the look of it I got really good preferences as well,” Yim said.
“I’ll do my best and see how it goes. It’s important to look at what you want to achieve at council.
“I hope the voters understand when they look at my track record that I bring some experience.”
Haydar Big said “I can’t wait for the outcome”.
“I am very positive about it having many second preferences from many other candidates.
“With all the local multicultural community and the local volunteer support, my second council campaign has been going well.”
Afra, an ALP member and former Casey councillor, described himself as a “long shot”.
“The problem is that people don’t follow the preferences.
“You’ll have to rely on preferences to win and that’s where the preferential system is wrong – sometimes it works in your favour and sometimes against.”
He believed that Haydar Big, Danh and Yim were all campaigning strongly.
“To be honest, unless the preferences work in my favour, I can’t see myself winning.”
Voting closes on Friday 8 March, 6pm. Provisional results are expected on 18 March.
