By CAMERON LUCADOU-WELLS
LOCAL Labor MPs have lost government but held their seats despite a strong pro-Liberal surge, higher than the national average, in Saturday’s federal election.
The swing was most pronounced in Isaacs and Bruce – the seats of former government ministers Mark Dreyfus and Alan Griffin.
Hotham ALP candidate Clare O’Neil will safely hold former Labor leader Simon Crean’s seat, despite a 5.5 per cent swing against her.
Anthony Byrne, the Holt incumbent, contained losses in his safe seat to a below-national average swing.
Monash University political academic Dr Nick Economou said the large anti-ALP swings were a predictable correction given the large federal Labor vote in Victoria in 2010.
“There’s some good results for various local candidates. Very few seats have changed hands, which is always the way in Victoria.
“Labor has a minority of the two-party preferred vote but a majority of seats in Victoria.”
However, Bruce – a stronghold of the ALP’s Alan Griffin since 1996 – has become a marginal seat in the wake of the weekend’s vote.
“I wasn’t very surprised by the [Bruce result]. It has been no secret that we’ve been behind,” Mr Griffin said. “When we stretched the string in 2010 with the highest vote in Victoria ever and I was on about 55 per cent, it was always going to be tight.”
Emanuele Cicchiello, Liberal candidate for Bruce, outscored Mr Griffin on the primary vote and secured a swing more savage than the 3.5 per cent national swing against the ALP.
Barely 2000 two-party preferred votes separated the pair at close of voting on Saturday night.
It is somewhat of a ‘back-to-the-future’ scenario for Mr Griffin, who first won the seat with a 0.76 per cent margin during the Liberal-National Coalition’s landslide victory in 1996.
What is different this time is the pain of losing government – the dazed confusion of himself and his colleagues was akin to after a car crash, he said. A “thoughtful” post-mortem about what went wrong was needed over coming months.
“We established an impression within the electorate that we were more focused on ourselves than on them, which is always dangerous,” Mr Griffin said.
“We’ve been poor at selling the virtues of our achievements and at defending against the kind of negative attacks made by the opposition.”
Mr Cicchiello conceded despite the voter backlash, it was “highly probable” Mr Griffin would be returned – even allowing for uncounted postal votes.
“People are hurting under cost of living pressures. Job security is a big issue. We offered a strong alternative.
“There was genuine interest in what we have come to offer. The Abbott government will build consumer confidence and build infrastructure for the 21st century.”
His promised $400,000 for CCTV in central Dandenong and $25,000 to help We Care Community Services buy a food van would be honoured.
