Labor candidate Eden Foster would be expected to not only win the upcoming Mulgrave byelection but also be a future leader within the party, according to a political expert.
Dr Zareh Ghazarian, a politics senior lecturer at Monash University, said the seat which had been held by former Premier Daniel Andrews for 21 years was very important for the ALP.
“It’s a safe seat. It would be a seat that you’d expect to have a Minister or a potential future leader in that regard.
“It would normally be expected that the contest for Labor preselection would be very strong.
“Labor must have great hope that (Foster) would be a major player in future years.”
Foster lives in the seat, has a strong community profile as Greater Dandenong mayor and is of the same Left faction as Andrews.
She has been on a steep ascension since being first elected as a Greater Dandenong councillor in 2020.
Elected as mayor in late 2022, she stepped down to contest the byelection on 18 November.
She will compete against the Liberal Party, independent Ian Cook and the Greens’ Rhonda Garad – who is also a Greater Dandenong councillor and regards herself as Foster’s friend.
At last November’s state election, Andrews held the seat by a 10 per cent margin.
The byelection will be a test whether that buffer was driven by Andrews’s high profile as Premier, Ghazarian said.
“Without him there, it will be interesting to see how it will affect the Labor primary vote.”
Even factoring a recent boundary redistribution and voter volatility, an upset was unlikely.
“Byelections tend to be done under different circumstances than a general election.
“The whole state’s focus will be on that seat, on that contest and the candidates.
“That said, this is Labor’s seat to lose. It should be confident of holding it.”
So far, Andrews has had no role in Foster’s campaign. Ghazarian was curious whether he would return to “endorse” his likely successor ahead of 18 November.
The poll was also the first test for new Premier Jacinta Allan and a gauge for the Liberal opposition.
“We’ll get a sense of what people are thinking of the new Premier. Are voters deserting Labor or coming back to Labor?”
Another factor is this will be the fourth time Mulgrave voters have been to the polls in the past 18 months.
“People might be getting a bit tired of it,” Ghazarian said.
“With Christmas around the corner, people will be thinking of other things.”
Last week, the Liberal Party announced it would run to give voters a “choice between a tired Labor Government or a new direction for Victoria”.
As of 23 October, the Liberal candidate is yet to be announced.
Greens candidate Rhonda Garad said Labor had “taken the seat for granted for far too long”.
She pledged to be a “fresh, powerful voice in Parliament for housing affordability, climate action and cost-of-living relief”.
Garad called for rent controls and “tens of thousands” of public and “genuinely affordable” homes.
“When I talk to people in Mulgrave, they’re all saying the same thing: the rising cost-of-living is making things really hard.
“Families, both young and old, are cutting back on meals and missing out on the things they need. And renters are constantly worried about the next rent rise.
“Every vote for the Greens this by-election sends a message that people want progressive action, and that the major parties can’t keep going with business as usual and just expect to keep their seats.”
I Cook Foods owner Ian Cook is running again as an independent after coming second in the seat with 18 per cent of the primary vote in last year’s state election.
“I think the people of Mulgrave have been let down.
“They were promised (Andrews) would go the full term. And in less than a year, the Labor Pary has abandoned Mulgrave.
“My message for the people of Mulgrave is they can be now represented by an independent voice to advocate for them and not tied to the party line.”
He said the change of Premier was “shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic”.
Allan needed to “stop the waste” and “get back to the services that people require”, Cook said.
“Given she was part of the problem, I don’t hold out any hope of her doing that – but we can hold her to account.”
Cook is sueing the Department of Health for alleged misfeasance in shutting down his Dandenong South commercial kitchen as part of a fatal listeria investigation in 2019.
He said there was “some irony” that Foster comes from Greater Dandenong Council that “took out” his business ICF and “knocked off” 41 jobs.
Foster was contacted for comment.
