By Violet Li and Cam Lucadou-Wells
Isaacs MP Mark Dreyfus will represent the lion’s share of Greater Dandenong voters, as part of a proposed electoral boundary redistribution.
The Labor bayside seat would claim about 33,000 extra projected electors in parts of Springvale South, Keysborough, Dandenong and Noble Park, according to the Australian Electoral Commission report.
Pundits say the change will strengthen Mr Dreyfus’s already safe margin.
Meanwhile the ALP’s Julian Hill (Bruce) and Clare O’Neil (Hotham), who would respectively relinquish 3597 and 29,439 projected electors from Greater Dandenong, would have notionally narrower margins.
Monash University politics expert Dr Zareh Ghazarian said the move east into Berwick might impact Mr Hill’s margin “slightly” but not make the seat “ultra-marginal”.
“I don’t think it’s going to be so much that it causes any problems for the current MP,” he said.
Mr Hill, who retains part of Dandenong, said the draft boundaries in South East Melbourne showed relatively little change this time, which was welcome.
“Bruce needs to grow slightly, and I’d be delighted to represent more of beautiful Berwick and surrounds, though what ultimately happens is up to the Australian Electoral Commission,” he said.
“Everyone will take time to work through the details and make public submissions to inform the final boundaries.
“One of the great things about Australia’s democratic system is that electorate boundaries are set by the independent Australian Electoral Commission, and I encourage anyone interested to have their say.”
Meanwhile Mr Dreyfus confirmed to the ABC that he would be running in the next federal election.
“I would hope, my party permitting, continuing as a cabinet minister in the next term of an Albanese Labor Government.”
He said his “great concern” about the redistribution was the possible deletion of the seat of Higgins, held by first-time Labor MP Michelle Ananda-Rajah.
The federal election can be held anytime between August 2024 and May 2025.
Dr Ghazarian said that with the narrowing poll margins between the Government and Opposition, it was more likely that the election would be in May.
Labor and the Coalition each have primary support in the 30’s, which suggests both would struggle to form majority government, Dr Ghazarian said.
“If independents and Greens are retained, they could be critical in supporting either party to form Government. It’s going to be a really big test for whoever gets in.”
The proposed redistribution report is open for comments until 28 June. Visit aec.gov.au/redistributions/2023/vic/index.html
