By Cam Lucadou-Wells
Social distancing measures has saved Victoria from catastrophic levels of coronavirus death and infection, according to modelling released by the State Government.
On 19 April, just one new case was recorded in Victoria – following 36 new cases in the previous three days.
As of 20 April, the total number in the state was 1329 – with about 130 unrecovered. Fifteen patients had died.
Over the weekend, Greater Dandenong cases were revised down from 16 to 14, according to DHHS figures.
Cases in Casey rose by 1 to 53, and Cardinia increased by two to 13.
Victorian Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said without social distancing and strict ‘stay-at-home’ measures, Victoria would have suffered a peak of 750 deaths a day – and 58,000 new cases a day.
He cited new modelling by Monash University and the Doherty Institute with epidemiology experts at the DHHS.
The state’s health system would be “overwhelmed”, requiring 10,000 intensive-care beds and 7000 of those with ventilators. It would have outstripped Victoria’s supply of 4000 beds.
As many as 36,000 Victorians would die of the virus.
In an “unmitigated” pandemic, the modelling assumed five unknown cases in the community each infecting two people per week.
Professor Sutton said Victoria had taken a different trajectory due to the distancing restrictions, effectively starting to extinguish the spread.
He said measures couldn’t be relaxed too quickly without risking an exponential rise in infections.
“But with very low numbers, and suppression over a number of weeks … If it’s all going well, lift another layer of restrictions and watch over another period of time that it’s not lifting exponentially again.”
Premier Daniel Andrews warned Victorians to “stay the course and don’t get complacent”.
He said other world leaders wished they could debate on whether to play golf, rather than “where the temporary coffins will go”.
“We’ll continue to take the advice of our public health experts, informed by the data, as we make decisions about when is the right time to ease some of the restrictions that we have in place.”
Meanwhile on 19 April, Victoria Police conducted 819 spot checks at homes, businesses and non-essential services as part of Operation Sentinel.
Officers issued 91 fines, including against five people drinking in a car and 16 at a home party.
