Local electorates look set to host some of Victoria’s fiercest battles at the next state election, as mortgage belts like the South East are becoming key targets for victory in 2026.
Last week, both Pakenham MP Emma Vulin and Bass MP Jordan Crugnale announced they would not recontest their respective seats. This leaves the two most marginal electorates in Victoria without incumbents.
Held by just over 300 and 200 votes respectively, these contests will see both major parties prosecuting their platforms with a new slate of faces.
The latest polling by Redbridge, conducted in September, shows Labor still holds a lead in the two-party preferred vote, 52 to 48.
However, the primary vote results suggest that both major parties have an opportunity to regain public sentiment. Voters are continuing to shift toward third parties, which now account for nearly a fifth of the primary vote in current polling.
Traditional heartlands are changing.
One Liberal MP, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the South East and outer Melbourne more broadly are emerging as critical opportunities for the party.
“The key indicator of whether or not a seat is going to be Liberal is not actually wealth anymore. It’s home ownership, because home ownership has become just so out of reach,” they said.
“What that shows is our heartland is shifting away from the inner suburbs to places where people can actually aspire and get ahead. In my opinion, and in the view of many others, that includes areas like the West, the South East and the East.”
The Werribee by-election in February this year showed that even Labor strongholds can be vulnerable. The 10 per cent margin held by the retired Tim Pallas in 2022 was reduced to less than one per cent.
The 16 per cent swing against Labor only translated into a 3 per cent increase for the Liberal Party in the primary vote.
A third of the vote went to third parties, and Labor narrowly retained the seat through preference flows.
The Liberal Party would need to win 16 more seats to form government in 2026. Head of Politics at Monash University, Dr Zareh Ghazarian, said seats like Pakenham and Bass are “must-wins” for the opposition.
“Looking at the outer metropolitan electorates, that’s where the marginal seats are,” he said.
“A lot has to go right for the Coalition to win, but the resignation of the Pakenham and Bass MPs does, you would think, level the playing field somewhat.”
